Accurately Predicting the End of the Real Estate Slump
I read today from Realty Times a phrase that got me thinking. The article is at: http://realtytimes.com/rtpages/20080402_sandiego.htm
I believe that the articles take on real estate professionals trying to predict real estate market trends is sometimes extremely careless. However, I also believe that some real estate professionals spend a lot of time analyzing the data that comes from their MLS systems. These real estate agents and brokers can be extremely accurate interpreters of real estate trends for their local area.
That isn't the topic that I wanted to cover.
What got me thinking was how long it would take until you can tell that the real estate market HAD hit its bottom. The line from the article stated that it would at least a couple of years afterwords that someone could honestly say that the bottom HAD come for the San Diego real estate market. How true.
Think about how long it takes (with the last 5 years removed) to show significant changes in the real estate prices. The trend for low rates of appreciation over time (1-2%) in housing could make very easy to interpret a bottom when only a specific segment of the market picked up. With two years of data, a person can hopefully eliminate market spikes and get a much broader picture of what the real estate market actually did.
So if you are hoping to know when the bottom is going to be, the earliest we can tell you is two years from now (if today is the bottom). If you want a crystal ball prediction, hmmm... That will cost you $10. No self repecting psychic would give out such valuable information for free:)!
Jason Tangen, GRI - Real Estate Broker Associate with Edina Realty St Cloud, MN
JasonTangen.EdinaRealty.com - Search real estate in St Cloud, MN and surrounding areas.
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